Makemyinvest Tradesting Newsletter
Weekly Learning & Market Insights – Issue #012
​03 Oct 2026

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Direction • Decision • Discipline

Sector Spotlight

The Week That Moved Markets

Bajaj Finance

• Approved a ₹17,500 crore capital raise through a combination of QIP and preferential warrants, providing additional capital for the company’s next phase of growth.

Bajaj Finserv

• Approved an investment of up to ₹5,800 crore through convertible warrants in Bajaj Finance, supporting the group’s broader capital-raising exercise.

Sterlite Technologies

• Secured a multi-year supply contract worth about $1.2 billion from an international hyperscale customer, strengthening its exposure to optical-fibre demand from global data-centre expansion.

Tata Steel

• Received a favourable tax ruling that could reduce its tax exposure by about ₹427 crore and separately invested around ₹3,260 crore in its overseas subsidiary T Steel Holdings.

Ambuja Cements

• Shareholders approved the proposed merger of ACC with Ambuja Cements, while Ambuja’s earlier merger with Orient Cement also received shareholder approval, advancing the group’s cement consolidation plans.

HCL Technologies

• Its software subsidiary agreed to acquire Canada-based Robotiq.ai for about €9 million, adding robotics and AI capabilities to its engineering and digital portfolio.

KPI Green Energy

• Secured a solar power project worth about ₹2,025 crore, strengthening its renewable-energy project pipeline and order visibility.

NCC

• Secured additional orders worth about ₹500 crore across its Buildings and Transportation divisions during September, adding to its infrastructure order book.

Jio Financial Services

• Jio Financial Services and Allianz Europe each invested about ₹320 crore in their 50:50 general-insurance joint venture to fund business operations and expansion.

Prestige Estates Projects

• CPP Investments agreed to invest ₹3,000 crore for an approximately 27% stake in Prestige Hospitality Ventures, supporting expansion of the group’s hospitality platform.

Inox Green Energy Services

• Completed a ₹300 crore QIP by allotting shares to qualified institutional buyers, providing additional capital for its renewable-energy operations.

Reliance Industries

• Raised ₹13,000 crore through a 10-year rupee bond issue, with strong institutional demand highlighting continued access to the domestic debt market amid higher global borrowing costs.

🌍 Major Global Developments This Week

US–Iran Conflict

• Diplomatic efforts to resolve the US–Iran conflict remained uncertain, with continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz keeping energy supplies, shipping and inflation risks in focus.

Strait of Hormuz

• Oil and gas shipments through the Strait remained disrupted, although regional crude exports recovered from earlier lows as alternative routes and shipping activity improved.

US–China Trade Relations

• Trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of easing, with both sides moving toward targeted tariff reductions while broader technology and supply-chain issues remained unresolved.

Global Bond Markets

• US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to around 5.34%, their highest level in more than two decades, while European and Japanese government bond yields also remained elevated.

Global Manufacturing

• Factory activity strengthened across several major economies in September, supported by strong AI and semiconductor-related demand, although elevated energy costs continued to pose an inflation risk.

AI Investment Cycle

• AI infrastructure remained a major global capital-spending theme, with large technology companies continuing to commit significant amounts toward computing capacity, data centres and AI development.

🏛️ Economic & Policy Developments

US Employment

• US non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, well below expectations, while unemployment rose to 4.2%, indicating a softer labour-market backdrop.

US Federal Reserve

• Softer employment data reduced near-term expectations for another rate increase, although persistent inflation and elevated energy prices continue to complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Eurozone Inflation

• Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, its highest level in three years, with the increase largely driven by sharply higher energy prices.

India Monetary Policy

• The RBI continued managing liquidity and currency-market pressures as elevated crude prices and higher global bond yields increased the focus on the upcoming monetary-policy decision.

India Manufacturing

• India’s manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in seven months during September, supported by stronger output, hiring and business confidence.

Indian Equity Fundraising

• Indian companies raised a record ₹2.43 lakh crore through equity markets during the first half of FY27, with IPOs and QIPs accounting for a significant portion of the fundraising activity.

🛢️ Commodities & Currency Developments

Crude Oil

• Brent crude remained around the $100-per-barrel zone as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and US–Iran negotiations kept a significant geopolitical risk premium in energy markets.

Natural Gas

• Global natural-gas markets remained sensitive to Middle East shipping disruptions, while US gas prices were influenced by changing storage expectations and seasonal demand.

Gold

• Gold declined sharply during the week as higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar reduced demand for non-yielding assets, despite continued geopolitical uncertainty.

Silver

• Silver also weakened during the week, falling more sharply than gold as higher yields and tighter financial conditions weighed on precious metals.

US Dollar Index

• The dollar remained firm near a two-month high, supported by elevated US Treasury yields, the September Fed rate hike and continued geopolitical uncertainty.

Indian Rupee

• The rupee weakened beyond ₹96 per dollar during the week as higher crude prices, global bond yields and foreign portfolio outflows increased pressure on the currency.

Why It Matters

• Crude oil remains the biggest macro risk for India, with Middle East tensions affecting inflation, the rupee, corporate costs and market liquidity.
• Higher global bond yields are tightening financial conditions, while softer US employment data has introduced greater uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
• India’s equity fundraising cycle remains exceptionally strong, with large QIPs, IPOs and strategic capital raises continuing despite weakness in secondary markets.
• AI and data-centre investment remains a major global growth theme, supporting demand across semiconductors, optical fibre, power, engineering and digital infrastructure.
• Currency and liquidity pressures remain important for Indian markets, as the rupee faces elevated oil and yield pressures while the RBI continues to manage market volatility.

Concept of the Week

Anchored VWAP (AVWAP)

Definition

Anchored VWAP is a variation of VWAP where the calculation starts from a specific event or price point chosen by the trader.

Instead of calculating VWAP only from the start of the trading session, AVWAP can be anchored to events such as:

• A major swing low or high
• A breakout
• An earnings announcement
• A significant gap
• A major market event

It helps answer:

How It Works

AVWAP considers:

Price × Volume​
divided by
​Total Volume

from the selected anchor point onward.

If price is above AVWAP, it suggests that buyers who participated since the anchor are, on average, holding positions above their volume-weighted cost.

If price is below AVWAP, the opposite may be true.

Example — NIFTY

Suppose NIFTY makes a major swing low at 24,000.

You anchor AVWAP at that low.

Over the next several sessions, AVWAP rises to 24,650.

Now NIFTY is trading at 24,850.

The 24,650 AVWAP becomes an important reference level.

If NIFTY pulls back toward 24,650 and buyers repeatedly defend the area, traders may interpret this as evidence of continued strength.

Why It Matters

AVWAP can help traders:

• Identify dynamic support/resistance
• Measure the average participant cost after a major event
• Analyse trends from significant swing points
• Evaluate whether price is trading above or below an important volume-weighted reference

It is particularly useful for analysing stocks after major corporate events or significant technical breakouts.

Common Mistake

The anchor point is subjective.

Two traders may choose different anchor points and therefore get different AVWAP levels.

Also, price crossing AVWAP does not automatically mean a trend reversal.

Key Takeaway

Pro Tip

Try anchoring AVWAP from a major swing low, swing high, or breakout candle and observe how price behaves when it revisits that level. Combine it with market structure rather than using it as a standalone signal.
​

Community Win

Wisdom of the Week

Learning Takeaway

• More data does not automatically mean better decisions.
  Investing requires judgment, context, and the ability to separate what matters from what merely creates noise.Action lesson: Before adding another number to your analysis, ask whether it actually changes your thinking.

My Content of This Week

​

​YouTube Video Link​

Book I Am Reading and Recommend

Keep Learning. Keep Tradesting!!! 🚀

Cheers,
​Tapas Chandra
​SEBI Registered Research Analyst | INH000026381
PGP (Research Analysis) | CMT Level-3 |
Author – Invest or Regret & The Power of Tradesting | Ex-JPMorgan Chase

Questions, insights, or lessons from the markets this week?
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